ACA Marketplace Tax Credit Expiration Could Shift Coverage Options for Medicaid Redetermination Population

Avalere projects that 18 million Americans receiving enhanced ACA marketplace premium tax credits will lose subsidies if they expire in 2025, including nearly 5 million adults ages 50–64. The analysis notes that marketplace enrollment surged partly due to Medicaid redeterminations following the end of the COVID-19 continuous coverage requirement, with approximately 4 million people ages 50–64 disenrolled from Medicaid between 2023 and 2024. The expiration could affect coverage pathways for populations that transitioned from Medicaid to marketplace plans during unwinding.

This is outside commentary from Avalere, not part of Medicaid Monitor's independently scored news coverage.

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