State Policy · CA
California Uninsured Rate Projected to Nearly Double to 15% by 2030
Analysis from UC Berkeley Labor Center and UCLA Center for Health Policy Research projects California's uninsured rate could rise from 5% to nearly 15% by 2030, with an estimated 2.2 million residents losing coverage due to state budget cuts and new federal restrictions. The losses will disproportionately affect undocumented immigrants and low-income residents, with uninsured rates more than doubling among Black and Asian Californians. Southern California will experience the sharpest coverage losses due to its higher concentration of low-income and immigrant populations. The rollback reverses California's 2024 achievement of 95% coverage after expanding Medi-Cal eligibility regardless of immigration status.
Why it mattersCalifornia's Medi-Cal program covers 15 million beneficiaries — the largest state Medicaid program in the country — and these projected coverage losses signal major enrollment declines, reduced capitation revenue for managed care plans operating in affected regions, and increased uncompensated care burdens for safety-net providers serving Southern California's disproportionately impacted communities.